The Great Crash Ahead
Strategies for a World Turned Upside Down
Publication Date: September 20, 2011
In his most recent New York Times bestselling book, The Great Depression Ahead, Harry S. Dent, Jr., predicted that the stimulus plan created in response to the first crisis would hit demographic and debt saturation headwinds and ultimately fail. In 2010, the stimulus plan had started to fail, and it was already stalling by the first quarter of 2011. The Great Crash Ahead outlines why the next crash and crisis is inevitable, and just around the corner—coming between 2012 and 2014.
With incisive critical analysis and historical examples, this book lays bare the traditional assumptions of economics. Dent shows that the government doesn’t drive our economy, consumers and businesses do; that the Fed does not create most of the money in our economy, the private banking system does; and that the largest generation in history is now saving for or moving into retirement, meaning slowing growth. This is the new normal! Our banking system borrowed to lend for the first time in history with unprecedented leverage and debt levels of $42 trillion, way beyond the massive government debt. But the government’s promises and unfunded liabilities take the cake, at an estimated $66 trillion and growing!
These massive debts will have to be restructured in a time of slowing spending, and this means a deflationary crisis, which is very different from the inflationary crisis of the 1970s and requires very different personal, investment, and business strategies. Dent and Johnson outline these strategies in very practical detail. In the coming years, the greatest surprise will be that the U.S. dollar becomes the safe haven and appreciates just when everyone is calling for it to crash, while the gold and silver bubbles burst along with the stock and commodity bubbles. And real estate will see another round of declines just when everyone thought it could go no lower. The Great Crash Ahead is about making smart, cautious investments—avoiding the sort of high-risk, high-profit investment schemes that sank the world economy.
The road to recovery will be filled with challenges and will require massive change, such as debt restructuring, plans for greater employment, the restructuring of social welfare programs such as social security and health care, budget cuts, and higher taxes—in short, a revision of the kind of lifestyle that characterized the “Roaring 2000s.” The good news is this process will eliminate tens of trillions of dollars of debt and can make way for growth again as the echo boom generation ascends. Or we can continue on our present course and end up like the Japanese, with no growth and high debt two decades later.
Harry S. Dent, Jr. is the president of the H.S. Dent Foundation, whose mission is "Helping People Understand Change." He is the founder of HS Dent, which publishes the HS Dent Forecast and oversees the HS Dent Financial Advisors Network. He is the author of the New York Times bestseller, The Great Depression Ahead, as well as of The Great Boom Ahead, in which he stood virtually alone in accurately forecasting the unanticipated "boom" of the 1990s. A Harvard MBA, Fortune 100 consultant, new venture investor, and noted speaker, Mr. Dent is a highly respected figure in his field.
Rodney Johnson is the president of HS Dent, an independent economic research and investment management firm. He oversees the daily operations of the companies and is a regular contributor to the HS Forecast and the HS Dent Perspective. A graduate of Georgetown University and Southern Methodist University, Mr. Johnson is a frequent guest on radio and television programs to discuss economic changes in the United States and around the world.
"Dent brings more very convincing analysis on the unbearable debt that is weighing down the US and world economy. But more important, he brings the unique lens of demographics to show how the Fed's stimulus plan is doomed to fail with the rising savings and slowing spending of the massive Baby Boom generation. A must read book for prospering in the inevitable debt crisis ahead."
--John Mauldin, 4 times New York Times best selling author of Endgame and financial newsletter publisher of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box
“I have watched Harry Dent's unique demographic approach to the economy and his forecasts for over 20 years. He has seen most of the key economic changes way ahead of most. In fact, he forecast the current economic crisis 20 years ago! He has spoken at many of my events around the world and has helped many prepare for the unprecedented economic challenges we are facing today. But perhaps the best thing about Harry is his very human, understandable and common sense approach to economics.”
- Anthony Robbins, Entrepreneur, Author and Peak Performance Strategist
“You can't accuse Harry Dent of being a wimpy thinker. His new book is full of confident analysis and bold predictions. Whether he will be right about all of it, who can say? But his core theme is fascinating and provocative; his book is a delight.”
--William Bonner, President and CEO of Agora Inc.; author of Dice Have No Memory and Empire of Debt
“While being one of the most bullish and accurate forecasters for 20 years, Dent has always been warning that this great boom would end around 2008-2009. He now sees a bigger crash ahead and a deflationary environment that could ravage your portfolio. His warnings and predictions are well worth reading and taking seriously.”
--David Bach, #1 New York Times bestselling author of Start Late, Finish Rich and Debt Free for Life
“The Great Crash Ahead” sounds ominous, but it doesn't have to be if you know what factors to look at when making new decisions about your career, your investments and your business model. The old remedies won't work anymore, but visionaries Harry Dent and Rodney Johnson provide their unique insight on how to make your future a prosperous one.
--Ed Slott, CPA, author, IRA expert, creator of PBS Special “Stay Rich Forever and Ever”
“Dent is the reigning expert in using sophisticated demographic models to see around the economic corner. He saw the boom of the 1990s and warned that a bust would come in 2008 forward. Now he tells us the worst is not over. Harry makes a clear and compelling case for what could be a tough time ahead.”
--Robert D. McTeer, Distinguished Fellow, National Center for Policy Analysis, and former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas