The Demographic Cliff
The Demographic Cliff
How to Survive and Prosper During the Great Deflation of 2014-2019
Portfolio, Hardcover, 9781591847274, 358pp.
Publication Date: January 7, 2014
Throughout his long career as an economic forecaster, Harry Dent has relied on a not-so-secret weapon: demographics. Studying the predictable things people do as they age is the ultimate tool for understanding trends. For instance, Dent can tell a client exactly when people will spend the most on potato chips. And he can explain why our economy has risen and fallen with the peak spending of generations, and why we now face a growing demographic cliff with the accelerating retirement of the Baby Boomers around the world.
Dent predicted the impact of the Boomers hitting their highest growth in spending in the 1990s, when most economists saw the United States declining. And he anticipated the decline of Japan in the 1990s, when economists were proclaiming it would overtake the U.S. economy.
But now, Dent argues, the fundamental demographics have turned against the United States and will hit more countries ahead. Inflation rises when a larger than usual block of younger people enter the workforce, and it wanes when large numbers of older people retire, downsize their homes, and cut their spending. The mass retirement of the Boomers won t just hold back inflation; it and massive debt deleveraging will actually cause deflation weakening the economy the most from 2014 into 2019.
Dent explores the implications of his controversial predictions. He offers advice on retirement planning, health care, real estate, education, investing, and business strategies. For instance . . .
BUSINESSES should get lean and mean now. Identify segments that you can clearlydominate and sell off or shut down others. If you don t, the economy will do it for you, more painfully and less profitably.INVESTORS should sell stocks by mid-January 2014 and look to buy them back in 2015 or later at a Dow as low as 5,800.FAMILIES should wait to buy real estate in areas where home prices have gone back to where the bubble started in early 2000.GOVERNMENTS need to stop the endless stimulus that creates more bubbles and kills the middle class, and should assist in restructuring the unprecedented debt bubble of 1983 2008.
Dent shows that if you take the time to understand demographic data, using it to your advantage isn t all that difficult. By following his suggestions, readers will be able to find the upside to the downturn and learn how to survive and prosper during the most challenging years ahead.
“I have worked in the highest level of U.S. politics and see a disaster in the making as the government employs endless stimulus plans and bailouts that destroy the very free market capitalistic system that has made it the richest major country in the world. Harry Dent adds the reality of aging societies and slowing demographic trends to show why such reckless debt-driven policies are certain to fail.”
—David Stockman, author of The Great Deformation: The Corruption of Capitalism in America
“Whether you know it or not, you are careening toward a demographic cliff. With this riveting book, esteemed economic forecaster and visionary Harry Dent has produced a must read for the next decade and beyond. It will keep you flying high while the rest of the world tumbles blindly through the turbulence.” —George Gilder, author of Knowledge and Power, Wealth and Poverty, Microcosm, and Telecosm
“Harry Dent has drawn on his unique approach to demographic forecasting as a speaker at my events for twenty years. Over the last three decades, he has accurately predicted the 1990s surging markets, Japan’s twenty-year economic tailspin, and the U.S. market peak in 2007. His ability to help people understand, in simple terms, some of the most important forces that have helped shape our economy is invaluable. Read this book and find out what impact Harry believes demographics will have on our economy in the coming years.”
—Anthony Robbins, entrepreneur, author, and peak performance strategist
“In Endgame I outlined the global debt that makes a financial crisis inevitable. Harry Dent goes further and shows how a succession of demographic slowdowns following Japan and the United States will make the endless government stimulus plans doomed to fail. He even shows that real estate will not be the same again with rising sellers versus buyers. This is a must-read book for prospering in the debt crisis ahead.” —John Mauldin, author of Code Red, chairman of Mauldin Economics, and editor of Thoughts from the Frontline and Outside the Box